Showing posts with label forex. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forex. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

FOREX TEMPLATE FOR GRAB


I am thinking of uploading my system to the internet so that it will be available for everyone. It will only be the basic system. The rest you have to figure out yourself.

Can anyone tell me where is the best place to upload and share files. I intend to upload a MT4 template and a text document explaining how it works.

FOREX


Have you ever been lost in Forex? Some of you might be thinking, how do i get lost in forex?? Let me ask another question. Have you ever open a trade in one direction, after some time open a trade in the opposite direction?

Im sure that happens to all of us, myself included :). That is lost in Forex, where we are unsure of direction of trade. Some people even hedge in the situation.

I have a few tips when you are lost in Forex.

1. If you are lost and dont know which direction to trade, the most important thing is to stop trading and do something else. Go plant a tree or play games. Dont even look at the charts anymore to avoid confusion.

2. Is to take a trading system and put it on multiple time frame. I trade using the same system on 3 timeframe. 15m, 1h, daily. When all three is pointing at the same direction then I trade. If 2 timeframe is pointing at the same direction then i scalp.

3. After sometime, your brain will start to imprint patterns of Forex. Forex has the same pattern over and over again. In our mind, that pattern has been imprinted and it influence our decision making subconsciously. Once you reach that state you will rarely get lost in Forex. You will know the exact time to trade or to get lost (do something else).

I will try to update this blog. Been so long and so busy with new place. As for Forex, USD pairs are going nowhere at the moment with a high probability to go down further. Good luck on your hunt for pi

ITS NOT PIPS BUT PROFIT IN FOREX


You can actually tell if someone is new in Forex by the way they count their pips or profit. When people starts forex they count pips. They can have hundreds of pips a day and yet their profit is low. This is due to the low risk reward ratio they have taken.

Once you are older in Forex, you will see the ratio. No point of taking hundreds of pips when the profit is low. So you start to take high risk high return trade. These trades do not give you high pips but the profit margin is high.

That is how money is to be made in Forex. You actually manage your risk and take profit from it. For today as of now, I already taken 3 trades. 2 profit trades and 1 lost trade. My account grows 37%. Not bad for a slow Monday.

For the answer to Forex, once you know it you will feel helpless. No matter how smart or brilliant you are it counts for absolutely nothing here. I have Banking and IT qualification. Did that help me? 2 different qualification did not help me one bit here. Made me want to cry when I found it out.

THE ENDING IS NEAR


1,447 days ago I started to step in the world of Forex. 6th May 2006 is the day I registered my 1st demo account and its a Saturday. Through out my journey in Forex, there are no actual manual, text or books that I can really refer to. Its like an unexplored land with no maps what so ever. There are only guides available online with no one giving specific answer.

Though hard it may be I started to develop my own system and continue to improve on that system. No matter how I try to improve it, there is still something missing. After a long and hard work I finally got the answer. It is an answer that I wasn't willing to accept. So I disappeared for almost 1 year though my part of moving places only took 1 month to settle.

Now I am back trading with the answer in my head thus a new direction in my sight. Turns out it is really easy once you have the right answer. You know the question as well as I do. "WHAT IS FOREX".

I believe my learning period in Forex is almost over. I can now see direction clearly. I know which pair to trade with the highest probability of profit. I know when to exit and I know when to turn off the computer while still holding positions. I have mastered the basic of Forex. The only thing now is discipline and Money Management.

What I am not willing to do is to write in this blog about trading ideas. I may blow out the answer. After almost 4 years, its not something I am willing to give easily. There are no notes, no records, nothing written anywhere on my trading ideas. Its all in my head. My system now is so simple, it consist of only 2 main indicators which I can trade without. Find the answer and its all smooth sailing from there. I just wish I have found it earlier.

For those of you who show interest in my new trading system, thank you for the attention. I have stopped giving out my system due to limited time I have to teach. I dont teach, I dont sell my system, I dont ask for your money and I dont give signals.

You can come and visit this blog. I will give chart analysis from time to time. Dont expect too much coz there is not much in Forex anyway.

Good luck to all of you. Thank you for visiting my blog. For today, do sell GJ coz its going down. You just need to figure out where to enter. Its not an easy task, I know coz Ive been ther

FOREX 4TH ANNIVERSARY


Today marks the end of 4th year I am in Forex and I am still here. Most of the friends that I know trade has already stop. It must mean something to stay here for so long when most people quit. Its either I am really stubborn or I am not losing money. Which one you think?

After 3 days of demo trading I got over 25k of profit from 10k max lot trading. Its over 250pip net profit. Not bad for a part time trader and a 7th place so far. I dont think I can be number 1 coz of limited time I trade. Its a good progress, it shows where I am after 4 years. How about you?

FOREX 4TH ANNIVERSARY


Today marks the end of 4th year I am in Forex and I am still here. Most of the friends that I know trade has already stop. It must mean something to stay here for so long when most people quit. Its either I am really stubborn or I am not losing money. Which one you think?

After 3 days of demo trading I got over 25k of profit from 10k max lot trading. Its over 250pip net profit. Not bad for a part time trader and a 7th place so far. I dont think I can be number 1 coz of limited time I trade. Its a good progress, it shows where I am after 4 years. How about you?

FOREX IS AN ART


When you say trading, people will say trading is an art. Look at all the books that has been published on the subject. They will say the art of trading forex.

In that sense, we must take forex as an art and not a science. I know, some people may not agree with me and all the post that is in this blog. I don't blame them coz I was actually in the same place as they were when I started trading. Trying to find the answer to forex using every logical explanation.

This is the answer that you have been looking for. I am going to give it to you straight away. Let see if your mind can accept it.

Forex is not a science. There is not a single mathematical equation that can explain it. Do not forecast, do not predict, do not anticipate. All you need to do to make profit is to follow the market. If the price is going up, you buy. If the price is going down, u sell. You may not win all the time but if you follow the market, in the end you will be in profit. Make profit and build up your capital up to a point where a few winning trades per month will bring huge profit.

Can you accept it? Can you mind admit it? Is your logical mind challenged? Do you feel helpless? Welcome to the real world :)
4 comments

FOREX WITH PEACE OF MIND


Hi everyone,

I hope all of you are doing fine and have lots of pips to enjoy. Just got back from a vacation. 6 days there and I got bored and get back home. Leave my wife and kids there to do their shopping. It seems that I like it better at home than to stay at hotels. Maybe I'm getting old :)

Been a while since I have updated this blog. Been thinking of deleting or selling this blog to anyone who wants it.

Met a friend while on vacation. It seems he is making 15k average per month without even knowing how to trade. Talk about forex with peace of mind. You guys wanna know how he did it? Let me tell you his story.

He wanted to learn from me how to trade but I am reluctant to teach him since this is not something I can teach. I can tell you how I did it but I cant guarantee you can do it the same way I did. Its not pure technical or skill. There are some form of mind control involve. I cant change your mind. You have to do it your self. Free your mind.

He kept asking me how to make money in forex. I gave him a way that is a bit risky but with care everyone can do it. I told him to find a trader that is looking for investors. Lots of new traders around with good skills but low capital. These traders are looking for a way to maximize their income, so they take in few accounts to manage. They trade their own account and at the same time execute the exact same trade on their managed accounts. They take profit from their own account and take commission on manage accounts.

Turns out after 1 year my friend manage to get 15k average monthly income and he knows nothing bout trading. There are few rules to follow if you want to do the exact same way.

1. Study the trader records. At least 3 months maintain profit.
2. Open a trading account with your name tied to your banking account. (dont ever hand him your money)
3. Get the trader details just in case he decide to make a run for it.
4. Ready to accept trading losses. If its a trading loss, accept it and release him from his burden. Trading is already hard enuf. Now you know why I dont manage accounts.
5. Give him your trading account details and leave him alone.
6. Take him out for dinner at the end of the months. Dont ask, let him tell you bout the trading.

Hope that is clear enuf. Those steps are minimal. Extra precaution is always welcome but dont put pressure on the trader. We dont want to send him to a mental hospital or something.

Good luck everyone and happy trading. Im not going to give any trade setup since its all based on situation. If its there, then i trade. Ifs its not there, then I just watch and play with my RC helicopter. My new hobby is RC helicopter btw, a very expensive hobby.... oou

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

How to Make and Lose a Fortune in Forex?

If you are looking for an online job on internet then you should consider online trading. You can earn a remarkable amount of money by forex trading. When it comes to the fastest, efficient and the most workable online trading then forex trading is the answer. Forex trading offers many benefits for traders if they get enough learning of forex trading before officially starting it. A number of features of forex trading make it is the most suitable tool to generate online money.
Useful Information about Forex Trading Market

When you consider working as a forex trader, you should gather some authentic information about forex trading market to work as an effective forex trader. Following is the useful information for you to get a quick start as a forex trader with full confidence.
Timings of Forex Market

Timings of Forex Market

Forex market remains open 24 hours a day around the world and it starts working from Sunday (afternoon/evening) till the following Friday (afternoon/evening). You can work online from anywhere in the world and become a day trader.
Risk Probability

Forex market is risky for amateur traders, but still if you learn before start working as a forex trader then you can trade effectively with low risk.
Amount of Investment

You can start your forex trading account will a very little amount of investment. This is because the technological advancements that have made it is easier for home based small investors to start online trading with only few hundred dollars.
Forex Pips

Forex market allows you to take a start with little investment and you can easily find brokers regardless of the amount you can invest. A number of brokers are always available to offer you their services.
Price Actions

You should be aware of the changes occur in price. It is obvious that you cannot know about the exact change in price but you can predict these price actions by using any analysis method.

Price actions are the reasons for the continuous working of forex market and without price fluctuations there will be no forex trading.
Currency Market

Currency Market

If you decide to trade in currency market then you can generate profit by the fluctuations occur in price. On the other hand, if you decide to trade in shares and stocks, then you have to rely only on the rising of market.
Dummy Trading Accounts

You can take a start with a dummy forex account. These accounts are being offered by the online forex brokers. You don’t have to invest real money unless you feel sure about your success in forex trading.

It is recommended to you to learn forex trading or take a course of forex trading before starting it officially. After that you should choose a system and try to stick with that system. Be persistent and train yourself to bear the ups and down of forex trading. You also have to learn from your mistake if you want generate real profits. For online trading, it is highly important for you to find an authentic website. Search a reliable forex trading system that you feel is suitable for your personality type and for your lifestyle.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Forex Trading

There are different forex strategies, which focus on profit targets and individual trader needs. A trader has the choice to hold on investments, buy or sell the currencies. They may lead the trader to win or may lead him to lose but the most important part is that the trader never loses more than what he has won. So, forex strategic appears quite helpful.



Simple Forex Trading Strategies


Trade is a game of mind. If the trader deals intelligently and patiently there are a lot more chances of winning than losing the deals. In fact, it would not be wrong to say that, Forex trading strategies outmatch the number of forex traders. There are certain Forex trading strategies, which help a lot in presuming the market possibilities by critical observation of market trends, financial information and similar features. By looking and adopting these strategies one can surely earn more profit. There are also fewer probabilities of loss.
Prioritizing Business

For a trader to determine the right Forex trading technique, the trader must drive his targets in Forex business. The first and the basic step for a trader is to set his goals and prioritize his business targets. Setting the goals in the right direction is one of the most vital and leading steps towards gaining profit.

Another important step for all traders, who want to trade Forex is to specify a certain amount which they can risk without doing much damage to their trade. A good trader always aims at his profit, so the traders should determine the net profit they are aiming at.

As trade is the name of risk. Therefore, the Forex trading strategies are best adapted on the money the trader wishes to invest.
Day Trading

Day Trading

Day trading involves Forex trading strategies for short term traders who wish to get more profit in a very short time. These traders are mostly new traders and neophyte players. In case of the day trading the whole focus is on investments in which winning seems mandatory. Most of the market analysts believe that it’s the long term investment that leads to apex. This is because, according to them the price volatility, which the day traders take advantage of, are somewhat difficult to predict.

It is important for all the traders who want to trade Forex to ascertain an amount which they can risk without doing much damage to their trade.
Forex Experts

All the forex experts and strategy makers recommend a Forex trading strategy that would make use of the technical analyses and market trends. Political and economic crises have influenced trading a lot. The whole world is facing economic and financial crises, and a good trader should have sharp eyes on these factors. A trader has his own priorities and adopting Forex trading strategy won’t pay off, unless the trader knows the best forex strategy that would suit his priorities.

Forex strategies actually help the trader to broaden his mind and look into varies strategies, which will lead to profitable ways. These strategies given by the experts are to the direction to the trader. It is on the trader to look to the most feasible strategy.

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Best of Forex Trading Tools

The introduction of Forex trading tools have made this business more simple and easy to understand for newbie’s. Actually, none of the device can be considered as ideal for the sake of currency trading. Nonetheless, the professional in this field have developed couple of practical instruments that offer a comprehensive idea about the currency market.
Tools Helps to Make Good Profit



The more skilled traders in this professional have accepted the fact that right t use of Forex trading tools will bring substantial earnings.
Forex Trading Tools Update the Knowledge of Traders

Forex Trading Tools

The Forex trading entails the swapping of international currencies and also earning money through this practice. The market of Forex trading has been scattered on geographical basis and is illustrated by large investments. The Forex trading tools facilitate the trader in getting the latest information about the market trends; hence he/she can earn more profits.
Tools Provide Daily Summaries of Important Currencies

The most vital characteristics of Forex trading tools are to supply the reviews of main currencies on daily basis. These also provide weekly reviews of the currencies besides the other main updated information about the market. This aids the traders in understanding the most recent situation of the currency market through which they evaluate the market stipulation. By having a thorough knowledge about the currency market, the traders can forecast the potential tendencies and invest accordingly.

In this regard couple of mechanical softwares has been launched as Forex trading tools. The development in technology has invented certain softwares that gather all the essential details robotically and save this information for the trader.
Easy to Analyze Currency

Currently the task of evaluating the currency has become very simple. In this regard, the novice traders particularly use these gears in practical and useful manner. These software tools can be downloaded from internet for an insignificant cost. Now you can access the latest market situation just with few mouse clicks.
Forex is One of the Biggest Trading Markets

Numerous currencies are traded on daily basis in Forex trading market. It is therefore, not an easy job to maintain the record of whole trade with the alteration in rates of different currencies.

As a vigilant trader, one must be aware of the most recent happening in the currency market. This purpose can solely be achieved with the help of Forex trading tools. It provides an immediate access to the trading reviews; else it would not be easy to acquire these reviews.
The Updated Information Makes the Decision Easier

If the trader has information about the prevailing rates as well as the daily and weekly reviews, he/she can take more appropriate decision. There are couple of more tools that assist trader to keep an eye on rates of interest.

These tools also provide them complete accessibility to the dictionary as well as the monetary almanac. All these gadgets are mandatory for Forex trading.
The Forex Trading Tools are Available at Your Home

Forex trading tools are within the reach of traders

Now these Forex trading tools are within the reach of traders in their own homes. The biggest benefit of Forex trading is flexibility of time, because the currency market is open 24 hours a day. The trading activities can be performed with the help of internet and the cash can also be relocated automatically with the help of electronic machines

If you have PC as well as the internet at your place, you will have an easy access to the Forex tools and the foreign currencies for trading. There are plentiful companies on internet that offer the functional gadgets, such as comprehensive market study for easy trading.
Online Tools Help in Saving Money

These online tools can be downloaded from internet free of cost. If a trader would like to save cash, he/she can utilize these online tools. These online companies issue financial reports and also have various discussion forums

The existing Forex graphs as well as the other covert trading information unearthed by the internet companies are also very helpful for the investors. The combinations of one’s skills with the Forex trading tools will surely make him/her triumphant.

Friday, May 6, 2011

“Currency Manipulation” Will Continue, Despite G20



Last month, the G20 finally agreed on the specific factors that would be used to determine whether a country was manipulating its currency. Despite being watered-down (by the usual suspects), the so-called “scorecard” is nonetheless extremely substantive. Unfortunately, the resolution will be backed only by “peer pressure,” rather than any kind of real enforcement mechanism, which means that in practice it is basically worthless.


While the proximate goal of the resolution is to eliminate exchange rate manipulation, it’s ultimate goal is to minimize the risk of another economic/financial crisis. Towards that end, a country’s “budget deficit levels, the external imbalance and private savings rates” will be closely scrutinized, and will be warned if any of these factors reach levels that are deemed to be unsustainable. The idea is that an early warning system will prevent the global economy from reaching a point of disequilibrium that is so severe that crisis would be impossible to avert.

Of course, the problems with this program are manifold. First of all, there are no concrete numbers. For example, it’s not clear how large a country’s national debt or trade deficit has to reach before it receives a phone call and slap on the wrist from the G20. In fact, you could argue that the same imbalances that precipitated the crisis are largely still in place, which means that some countries should have been warned yesterday.

Second, there is no meaningful enforcement mechanism. That means that countries that disregard the resolution don’t really have anything to fear, other than the wrath of investors. In other words, if governments and Central Banks know that they can manipulate their exchange rates with impunity, what’s to stop them? Look at Japan: its public debt is the highest in the world. It runs a perennial trade surplus. Its citizens are notorious savers. And yet, when the Yen rose to a record high, which you might expect from such an imbalanced economy, the G7 (in this case) took the unusual step of pushing the Yen down. I’m not saying this wasn’t the right thing to do, but what kind of signal does this send to other rule breakers.

While all emerging market countries took an active interest in exchange rates (and seek to exert some control over their currencies), China is certainly Public Enemy #1, and is the clear target of the “currency manipulation” talk. To its credit, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has permitted the Chinese Yuan to appreciate 20% against the Dollar (probably 30% when inflation is taken into account) over the last few years. Meanwhile, both internal government statisticians and the IMF expect its current account surplus to narrow to a mere 5% in 2011, as its economy slowly rebalances.

In this sense, I think China is a case in point that the best enforcement mechanism is reality. Specifically, China has reached a point where it cannot continue to pursue an economic policy based on exports, without spurring inflation and causing the inefficient allocation of domestic capital (such as in real estate). It must raise interest rates and accept the continued appreciation of the RMB is an unavoidable byproduct.

The same goes for other countries that attempt to hold their currencies down. If they can get away with it, then so be it. If not, I can guarantee that it won’t be the G20 that forces them to change.

Does Japan’s “Triple Disaster” Threaten the Dollar?


While analysts have been busy dissecting the implications of the natural disasters that ravage(d) Japan for forex markets, the focus has naturally been directed towards the Yen. Given all the rumors about the liquidation of foreign (i.e. Dollar-denominated) assets, it’s also worth examining the potential impact on the Dollar. In a nutshell, Japan’s holdings of US Treasury Securities are extensive, and even a partial unloading could have serious
implications for the world’s de facto reserve currency.
As I explained in my previous post, the Yen rose to a record high (against the Dollar) following the earthquake/tsunami/nuclear crisis because of rumors that Japanese insurance companies and other financial institutions would begin repatriating all of their foreign assets in order to pay for rebuilding. (For the record, it’s worth pointing out again that this has yet to take place, and any repatriation is probably related to the approaching fiscal-year end. Thus, the Yen is being propelled by speculation/short squeeze. Period.)
Indeed, Goldman  Sachs has estimated that the rebuilding effort will probably cost around $200 Billion. A significant portion of this will no doubt be covered by the payout of insurance claims. How insurance companies will make their claims is of course, unknown. However, consider that Japanese insurance companies have insisted that they have ample cash reserves. In addition, Japan has what is perhaps the world’s most solid earthquake reinsurance (basically insurance for insurers) program, which means primary insurance companies can basically pass these claims up the chain, perhaps all the way to the government.
As for whether the Bank of Japan will sell some its $900 Billion in Treasury holdings, this, too appears unlikely. First of all, the Bank of Japan is doing everything in its power to soften the upward pressure on the Yen, which would not be consistent with selling any of its Dollar-assets. Second,  the Financial Times has further argued that they will be especially unlikely to sell US Treasury securities, because they would lose money on (US Dollar) currency depreciation. Besides, any assets that are sold now to pay for rebuilding would probably need to be repurchased later in order to restore balance sheet equilibrium.
While I am on the topic, I want to draw attention to a recent Treasury report that documented the overseas holdings of Treasury securities. The major surprise was China, whose holdings were revised upwards to $1.18 Trillion (from $892 Billion), which means it is well-entrenched as the most important creditor to the US. However, this was offset by a 50% drop in the Bank of England’s holdings, caused perhaps by a change from US debt to British debt.
As I have written in the past, it seems unlikely – for political, economic, and financial – reasons that China will move to pare its Treasury holdings in a significant way. Simply, it has no other viable options for investing the foreign exchange reserves that it is forced to accumulate because of the Yuan-Dollar peg. Other doomsdays have speculated that the crisis in the Middle East will end the “petro-Dollar” phenomenon, whereby oil exporters settle their bills almost exclusively in Dollars and use the proceeds to buy Treasuries. While US influence in the Mid East may indeed wane further as a result of the ongoing political turmoil, I don’t think this will force a change to the PetroDollar phenomenon, which is due as much to unavoidable trade surpluses as it is to settling oil transactions in US Dollars.
There is certainly some concern about what will happen when the Fed wraps up QE2 later this year and stops buying Trreasury securities. Two prominent investment companies (PIMCO and Vanguard) have warned that this will cause bond prices to fall and interest rates on debt to rise rapidly. While this is certainly possible, demand for Treasuries will remain strong for as long as the current risk-averse climate remains in place. In addition, given that the US Treasury is not in danger of defaulting anytime soon, yields reflect expectations for inflation and interest rates more than supply/demand for the bonds themselves. Finally, when the Fed stopped buying mortgage backed securities in 2010, mortgage rates fell, contrary to expectations.
In short, the Dollar might continue to fall against the Yen as speculators cover their short positions, but not because of any fundamental reasons. On an aggregate basis, the never-ending string of crises won’t cause the Dollar to collapse. If anything, it might even bring some risk-averse capital back to the US and re-affirm the Dollar’s status as global reserve currency.

Simple Forex Trading Strategies

There are different forex strategies, which focus on profit targets and individual trader needs. A trader has the choice to hold on investments, buy or sell the currencies. They may lead the trader to win or may lead him to lose but the most important part is that the trader never loses more than what he has won. So, forex strategic appears quite helpful.

Simple Forex Trading Strategies


Trade is a game of mind. If the trader deals intelligently and patiently there are a lot more chances of winning than losing the deals. In fact, it would not be wrong to say that, Forex trading strategies outmatch the number of forex traders. There are certain Forex trading strategies, which help a lot in presuming the market possibilities by critical observation of market trends, financial information and similar features. By looking and adopting these strategies one can surely earn more profit. There are also fewer probabilities of loss.
Prioritizing Business

For a trader to determine the right Forex trading technique, the trader must drive his targets in Forex business. The first and the basic step for a trader is to set his goals and prioritize his business targets. Setting the goals in the right direction is one of the most vital and leading steps towards gaining profit.

Another important step for all traders, who want to trade Forex is to specify a certain amount which they can risk without doing much damage to their trade. A good trader always aims at his profit, so the traders should determine the net profit they are aiming at.

As trade is the name of risk. Therefore, the Forex trading strategies are best adapted on the money the trader wishes to invest.
Day Trading

Day Trading

Day trading involves Forex trading strategies for short term traders who wish to get more profit in a very short time. These traders are mostly new traders and neophyte players. In case of the day trading the whole focus is on investments in which winning seems mandatory. Most of the market analysts believe that it’s the long term investment that leads to apex. This is because, according to them the price volatility, which the day traders take advantage of, are somewhat difficult to predict.

It is important for all the traders who want to trade Forex to ascertain an amount which they can risk without doing much damage to their trade.
Forex Experts

All the forex experts and strategy makers recommend a Forex trading strategy that would make use of the technical analyses and market trends. Political and economic crises have influenced trading a lot. The whole world is facing economic and financial crises, and a good trader should have sharp eyes on these factors. A trader has his own priorities and adopting Forex trading strategy won’t pay off, unless the trader knows the best forex strategy that would suit his priorities.

Forex strategies actually help the trader to broaden his mind and look into varies strategies, which will lead to profitable ways. These strategies given by the experts are to the direction to the trader. It is on the trader to look to the most feasible strategy.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

How to Trade In 2011?

Kuninaka Ryoko
One of the basic and foremost instincts of a human being is to earn more and more profits. Making a profit greatly depends upon market conditions and general tactics. There are some useful steps which if being followed will help a lot, in understanding  the chemistry of these marketing conditions and to get some consistent profits from forex trading.

Day Traders

Most of us prefer being day traders, and it is the utmost desire and necessity to earn some profit by the end of the day. Being an efficient day trader, for instance, one should have in mind the average daily range for each of major currency pairs. In the last three months, most of the leading pairs have noticed their averages fall quite rapidly as indicated by the Average True Range indicator.
So, if the same trend continues, it leads to smaller and smaller trading range at the end of each day.

Necessary Precautions

As for those who don’t know, by the end of December 2010 the average range of the GBP /USD pair was 135 points at the time of writing. People, who enjoy early morning breakouts, must be cautious about trading early in the morning by taking in consideration of overnight trading points range. Moreover, if the range is between 30 to 60 points and breakout takes place, then there is plenty of room for the price to move strongly in the expected direction. This is the same situation when the trading range was in excess of 200 points, and we were sure about the price heading towards the right destination.

Longer Term Trades

Long term trades are always more reliable than the short term trades. Most of the traders are busy trying to get quick profits. However, it is quite a known fact that trading ranges are quite minor now a day’s for major pairs. Usually most of us are far much better off trading the four hour and daily charts. The overall trend, forex trading system uses the daily chart and the four hour chart for pinpointing entry and exit points.

This has worked marvelously for quite a long time, and there is nothing stopping forex from being more profitable in the upcoming years.

Making Money Is Simple

Making Money Is Simple
The major pairs will always confirm very well to technical analysis on these longer time frames. Overall it is a lot easier and quite efficient way to make money. You simply need to come up with a straight-forward trading system that can detect one or two high probability trading opportunities every week.
The crust of the whole scenario is that let the previous and bygones be left aside, there are still plenty of opportunities to make money from forex trading in 2011. This is true if you enjoy the bounty of trading the longer term charts. However, short term trading can also be fruitful despite the narrow trading ranges. We have to look a bit deep and find the right method, which leads to efficient trading.

Forex Becomes A Mass Movement


The market isn’t getting any more efficient is the first warning essential for all future forex traders The fashion among retail investors these days is to trade foreign exchange Before the trend catches on to you as well, note the fact that the FX market is unpredictable now, making it impossible to capitalize the same as an easy money generator.To confirm the same the test of an efficient market, volatility ratios, can be done. Thank you for reading about foreign exchange and foreign exchange.




The process involved is basic. If markets are to be efficient, past price movements shouldn’t predict future movements, but this is just one of the conditions. For this scenario the rise in volatility is proportionate to the square root of time, hence the volatility of fortnightly change is the same as the square root of two multiplied by the weekly volatility.



If we test the volatility of actual to random walk, we can see whether a price follows random walk or not. A higher random walk volatility than actual volatility translates into falls in one period leading to rises in the eventual period.



The ratio of actual to random walk volaitility for three main exchange rates can be seen in my chart. The pound may rise for a few weeks but would fall because of reversion is the suggestion here Further your knowledge on foreign exchange at currency conversion calculator.



Nevertheless, the ratios touch one, as close as 12 percent of it. One could easily lose fortunes bettinf on the inefficiency since it is so little. The diminishing profit making became staple of Forex trading in the 1990s since investors started wising up to the momentum effects.



One can see deviations over a short period of time from the random walk. Anticipating surprises better than the market can lead to a person making money even from a random walk. Our data findings show a roughly random rate move for foreign exchange over a 17 year period. The efficiency of a market would be brought down in extremely short periods.



For traders, knowing news like the US dollar turning absolutlely worthless in an years time would be priceless. It would have been possible to make money by purchasing the dollar at its lower point because it over reacted and then mean reverted.



But this is not an inefficient market. The profits made from purchasing dollar at its low point aren’t risk free ones but instead a reward for taking the crash risk. The predominant character in exchange rates over the years is the variation in crash risk.



It is obvious that the

Sunday, May 1, 2011

“Currency Manipulation” Will Continue, Despite G20

Last month, the G20 finally agreed on the specific factors that would be used to determine whether a country was manipulating its currency. Despite being watered-down (by the usual suspects), the so-called “scorecard” is nonetheless extremely substantive. Unfortunately, the resolution will be backed only by “peer pressure,” rather than any kind of real enforcement mechanism, which means that in practice it is basically worthless.




While the proximate goal of the resolution is to eliminate exchange rate manipulation, it’s ultimate goal is to minimize the risk of another economic/financial crisis. Towards that end, a country’s “budget deficit levels, the external imbalance and private savings rates” will be closely scrutinized, and will be warned if any of these factors reach levels that are deemed to be unsustainable. The idea is that an early warning system will prevent the global economy from reaching a point of disequilibrium that is so severe that crisis would be impossible to avert.

Of course, the problems with this program are manifold. First of all, there are no concrete numbers. For example, it’s not clear how large a country’s national debt or trade deficit has to reach before it receives a phone call and slap on the wrist from the G20. In fact, you could argue that the same imbalances that precipitated the crisis are largely still in place, which means that some countries should have been warned yesterday.

Second, there is no meaningful enforcement mechanism. That means that countries that disregard the resolution don’t really have anything to fear, other than the wrath of investors. In other words, if governments and Central Banks know that they can manipulate their exchange rates with impunity, what’s to stop them? Look at Japan: its public debt is the highest in the world. It runs a perennial trade surplus. Its citizens are notorious savers. And yet, when the Yen rose to a record high, which you might expect from such an imbalanced economy, the G7 (in this case) took the unusual step of pushing the Yen down. I’m not saying this wasn’t the right thing to do, but what kind of signal does this send to other rule breakers.

While all emerging market countries took an active interest in exchange rates (and seek to exert some control over their currencies), China is certainly Public Enemy #1, and is the clear target of the “currency manipulation” talk. To its credit, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has permitted the Chinese Yuan to appreciate 20% against the Dollar (probably 30% when inflation is taken into account) over the last few years. Meanwhile, both internal government statisticians and the IMF expect its current account surplus to narrow to a mere 5% in 2011, as its economy slowly rebalances.

In this sense, I think China is a case in point that the best enforcement mechanism is reality. Specifically, China has reached a point where it cannot continue to pursue an economic policy based on exports, without spurring inflation and causing the inefficient allocation of domestic capital (such as in real estate). It must raise interest rates and accept the continued appreciation of the RMB is an unavoidable byproduct.

The same goes for other countries that attempt to hold their currencies down. If they can get away with it, then so be it. If not, I can guarantee that it won’t be the G20 that forces them to change.

Does Japan’s “Triple Disaster” Threaten the Dollar?



While analysts have been busy dissecting the implications of the natural disasters that ravage(d) Japan for forex markets, the focus has naturally been directed towards the Yen. Given all the rumors about the liquidation of foreign (i.e. Dollar-denominated) assets, it’s also worth examining the potential impact on the Dollar. In a nutshell, Japan’s holdings of US Treasury Securities are extensive, and even a partial unloading could have serious
implications for the world’s de facto reserve currency.
As I explained in my previous post, the Yen rose to a record high (against the Dollar) following the earthquake/tsunami/nuclear crisis because of rumors that Japanese insurance companies and other financial institutions would begin repatriating all of their foreign assets in order to pay for rebuilding. (For the record, it’s worth pointing out again that this has yet to take place, and any repatriation is probably related to the approaching fiscal-year end. Thus, the Yen is being propelled by speculation/short squeeze. Period.)
Indeed, Goldman  Sachs has estimated that the rebuilding effort will probably cost around $200 Billion. A significant portion of this will no doubt be covered by the payout of insurance claims. How insurance companies will make their claims is of course, unknown. However, consider that Japanese insurance companies have insisted that they have ample cash reserves. In addition, Japan has what is perhaps the world’s most solid earthquake reinsurance (basically insurance for insurers) program, which means primary insurance companies can basically pass these claims up the chain, perhaps all the way to the government.
As for whether the Bank of Japan will sell some its $900 Billion in Treasury holdings, this, too appears unlikely. First of all, the Bank of Japan is doing everything in its power to soften the upward pressure on the Yen, which would not be consistent with selling any of its Dollar-assets. Second,  the Financial Times has further argued that they will be especially unlikely to sell US Treasury securities, because they would lose money on (US Dollar) currency depreciation. Besides, any assets that are sold now to pay for rebuilding would probably need to be repurchased later in order to restore balance sheet equilibrium.
While I am on the topic, I want to draw attention to a recent Treasury report that documented the overseas holdings of Treasury securities. The major surprise was China, whose holdings were revised upwards to $1.18 Trillion (from $892 Billion), which means it is well-entrenched as the most important creditor to the US. However, this was offset by a 50% drop in the Bank of England’s holdings, caused perhaps by a change from US debt to British debt.
As I have written in the past, it seems unlikely – for political, economic, and financial – reasons that China will move to pare its Treasury holdings in a significant way. Simply, it has no other viable options for investing the foreign exchange reserves that it is forced to accumulate because of the Yuan-Dollar peg. Other doomsdays have speculated that the crisis in the Middle East will end the “petro-Dollar” phenomenon, whereby oil exporters settle their bills almost exclusively in Dollars and use the proceeds to buy Treasuries. While US influence in the Mid East may indeed wane further as a result of the ongoing political turmoil, I don’t think this will force a change to the PetroDollar phenomenon, which is due as much to unavoidable trade surpluses as it is to settling oil transactions in US Dollars.
There is certainly some concern about what will happen when the Fed wraps up QE2 later this year and stops buying Trreasury securities. Two prominent investment companies (PIMCO and Vanguard) have warned that this will cause bond prices to fall and interest rates on debt to rise rapidly. While this is certainly possible, demand for Treasuries will remain strong for as long as the current risk-averse climate remains in place. In addition, given that the US Treasury is not in danger of defaulting anytime soon, yields reflect expectations for inflation and interest rates more than supply/demand for the bonds themselves. Finally, when the Fed stopped buying mortgage backed securities in 2010, mortgage rates fell, contrary to expectations.
In short, the Dollar might continue to fall against the Yen as speculators cover their short positions, but not because of any fundamental reasons. On an aggregate basis, the never-ending string of crises won’t cause the Dollar to collapse. If anything, it might even bring some risk-averse capital back to the US and re-affirm the Dollar’s status as global reserve currency.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Foreign Exchange Spreads

The concept of spreads in the forex trading market is extremely complicated and difficult to understand. However, it is also a fact that it is an important and inevitable parameter that determines your ability to make remarkable profits.
What is Spread in Forex Trading?


Spread in Forex Trading

In the forex market, spreads are the difference between the offer prices and the bidding prices that are quoted in pips. For instance, the quote of GBP/USD is 1.8281/84 which means that the bidding price of GBP is 1.8281 US dollar while the offer price is 1.8284 US dollar. In this particular case, the spread is 3 pips.
Role of Spread in Forex Trading

Spread is an important parameter that helps brokers to make profit in forex trading. Wider spreads indicate a high offer price and a low bidding price. This simply means that you have to pay more when you buy and make fewer amounts when you sell out, this property makes the realization and estimation of profit difficult for forex traders.
Spreads & Trading Skills

The return which you get on your trading skills is greatly affected by the spreads. Being a trader, your ultimate goal is to make profit by buying low and selling high. Traders usually take a half-pip lower spread as granted, but in reality it can make an effective trading strategy into an ineffective strategy.

Spreads & Execution

You can achieve stability and success with spreads only if you work with appropriate execution. The quality of execution identifies whether you are going to get tight spreads or not. You must be aware of the denied trades, slippage, delayed execution and stop hunting which nullifies the effects of tight spread forex trade.

You must always take forex spread into consideration with the depth of the book. In most cases, forex brokers provide tight spreads only for capped trading volumes which are totally inappropriate for the traditional forex trading strategies.
What Forex Brokers Claim?

Tight Spreads

At present, almost all forex brokers claim that they are having the tightest spreads in the forex industry. However, spread terms and policies vary remarkably from one forex broker to another, besides the transactions that are not clear. Some brokers offer non-variable spreads that remain unchanged regardless of the quality of the liquidity of forex market. However, non-variable spreads are usually higher than that of the variable spreads.

Some other brokers provide variable spreads in accordance with the liquidity of market. For such brokers, spreads become tighter when the market liquidity is at good level, however, it widens when the market liquidity falls. There are various brokers who provide different spreads for different forex traders.

Forex traders who are having larger forex accounts or others, who carry out big trades, may get tighter spreads than other traders. Therefore, it is a wise idea to seek for a broker who is offering you the tightest variable spreads without any discrimination.

An Introduction to Forex Trading

One might think forex trading is a piece of cake until they enter in it seriously. Beginner forex traders must work hard to achieve real success in forex market as a beginner. Beginners must follow effective strategies; they must acquire effective money management skills and gain complete knowledge about forex trading.




Beginners Forex Lessons

If you are starting your forex trading beginners for very first time then you should take help from beginner forex lessons. This is because there is a huge traffic of forex beginner traders because of the incorporation of convenient and welcoming ways to join forex trading. Forex trading market is growing rapidly and its annual turnover is 1.9 million USD. Beginners should not take it easy. Beginner forex lessons will help forex traders to understand the buying and selling processes in forex market. In forex market, currency exchange trading occurs in pairs and at the same time buying and selling occurs.

Starters Forex

If you are starting forex trading with a starter forex then you must know about the rules of forex trading business. Particularly, you should know the basics of the buying and selling different currencies. According to recent surveys, government or companies that buy or sell their services and products daily in other countries constitute over 5% of the total profit generated in forex market. On the other hand, the remaining 95% profit is contributed by the speculation methods.

Dominant Currency Pairs

Beginner forex is a great helping tool for amateur traders. It provides them information about the perfect currency pairs that are dominating the forex trading market.

The actual dominating currency pairs in forex market are listed below.

  • USD-CAD
  • EUR-USD
  • NZD New Zealand Dollar-USD
  • USD-CHF Swiss Franc
  • AUD Australian Dollar-USD
  • USD-JPY
  • GBP-USD

Forex Quote

Forex Quote

Beginner forex will help you to read the forex quote. Basically, forex quote comprises of two numbers. These numbers are bid and offer. The best way to understand forex quote is to use the currency pair. For instance, consider the currency pair AUD/USD. The cost offered by the Australian dollar will act as the bidding price and it will be used by the traders as a price to buy the Australian dollar against the USD.

On the contrary, the price that is offered by the US dollar will act as the offer price and it will be used by the traders to sell the Australian dollar against the other i.e. USD. At 1 point, the base price value is taken in forex trading.

What is expected from Beginner Traders?

  • Beginner forex traders must acquire right approach while working in forex trading. This is a beginner forex is all about; it helps beginners to understand the two approaches of forex trading. These two approaches include two different analysis methods. Beginner forex traders should either work with fundamental or technical analysis.
  • Beginner trader should also make contact with a genuine forex pips to get effective and correct guidance.
  • Beginner traders should also acquire correct risk and management skills.

 
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